Home > Uncategorized > Told Ya So. Now What?

Told Ya So. Now What?

October 27, 2016

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As the playoffs approached I started to feel bad for long-suffering Dodgers fans, and even some of the young, naive and snarky ones. Maybe especially them. Anyone, really, who believed that this ownership group, this front office, and many of the players on this year’s roster, would undo nearly three decades of pain and suffering. I tried to warn them – anyone who reads my tweets or articles here knows this to be true. I did my best, but sometimes, well… a fan is short for fanatic, and the definition of is a person filled with excessive and single-minded zeal.

I saw the fervor building and deep hopes that this year it would be different. Admittedly, as a person who has spent wayyyy too much time analyzing Dodgers minutia over the past several decades, I knew it would not be. Again, feel free to look up my points of view from articles past to tweets long ago – it’s all there for the record. Andrew Friedman, and his boy troll Farhan Zaidi, were never going to do the impossible – not now, not with what they put together. When your front office is boasting never before has the disabled list been used so intensely, you know as a fan you are in deep doo doo.

I’ve chatted with friends and friends of friends who had one foot on the bandwagon themselves – these, people who should know better. Sort of like Trump Mania, they got swept away with the less experienced, believing a cake walk through a listless NL West meant things were different. I tried using reason – but they have no rotation! When would a team with no rotation – the only top tier pitcher coming off a serious back ailment and October yips – be enough to go to or win a World Series? But what of that tired, generic looking bullpen that logged wayyyy too many innings, covering for said lack of starting pitching? What of the team that also set another record – lowest batting average ever of a post season team vs. left-handed pitching? Last of 30 teams vs. left-handed pitching. No speed. Relying too heavily on a 22-year-old rookie, especially curious given the highest payroll in organized sports. No, you don’t understand, the chemistry – this year will be different! Ok. You can only argue so much, and who am I to piss on everyone’s shoes?

The Dodgers did as well as could be expected – not buoyed by greatness from the ownership group and front office, but more the soft Western division (the only other good team was the worst in baseball after the All-Star break) and bloat of payroll. Kids finally ripe, or nearly ripe, helped out immensely. The fans cheered the kids that the owners and front office executives provided, ignoring completely, or rewriting history, that the previous regimes did all the heavy lifting – scouting, drafting, signing almost anyone on the roster who had a good season, this includes Justin Turner and Clayton Kershaw. In fact, it’d be hard to find plus players the current group of geniuses found. Andrew Toles is the one that comes to mind, but like Kike Hernandez the previous year, too small a sample size, may still be exposed.

The fact of the matter is a lot of money was saved not signing Zack Greinke, not going after the free-agent arms like Johnny Cueto, David Price, Jordan Zimmerman, trade options like Cole Hamels, etc. but any savings were offset by overspending (again) on the walking wounded and never weres – Scott Kazmir, Brent Anderson, Brandon McCarthy, and so many “toolsy” Cubans we have not seen and likely never will. As I’ve stated before – an interesting high wire act of being cheap and being irresponsible with the wallet at the same time.

In reality, as I said last winter and this spring and many, many times (too many for most) during the year, the Dodgers could have fixed their 2015 playoff problems by addressing the issue that haunted them. The issue was starting pitching – rather than go it again with the lefty/righty ace combo of Kershaw and Greinke, and add more behind that, they instead subtracted. The sycophants wallet watching and saying how Greinke’s years 6-8 would bankrupt the team are the same types who don’t get how after trading top minor league talent for Andrew Miller, the Cleveland Indians are in the World Series. The illness that has taken over baseball fans where they feel compelled to be guardians of billionaire owners’ bottom line, as opposed to fans who deserve a title in their town, is impossible to argue with – believe me, I have tried. Whatever Greinke’s cost might be when he is older and less amazing means nothing if along the way you win a title, or perhaps more. The Indians understand this, and they are still playing today.

Kershaw and Greinke are a lot better than the alternatives, especially those brought in by Friedman, Zaidi and their gang of numbers crunching simpletons. What the Dodgers needed was to keep Greinke and add another arm of quality besides. Or – part with Greinke and sign two arms of quality. The problem last Oct was Anderson and the rest, not Kershaw and Greinke. The irony now that Greinke might be on the Dodgers radar as a winter trade target (the free-agent crop last winter was so vital as this year’s is non-existent) is humorous. Friedman lovers will hail a reunion as genius, even after saying how brilliant it was to let Greinke go. When you subtract your #2 starter and fill the void with a slew of question marks and DL cases, you’re just not bright. Innings, quality, healthy innings, are very key to constructing your pitching staff. The Dodgers had a big problem there from winter through spring into summer and fall. Micro-managing, using 7 pitchers per night since the starter could only go 2-4 innings, worked in the short term vs. very bad competition, but there is a massive difference between facing San Diego pitching and the Chicago Cubs.

I am curious to see if the administration learned this, or if they are going to go back to the same type of ineffectiveness that got them where they ended up. Part of the problem is the logjam of contracts and possible slots players like Kazmir and McCarthy take up. Not to mention Hyun-Jin Ryu, who was a warrior – until injuries made him unable to make the bell. The only way out of the situation is sucking up more salary, padding offers with desirable prospects and going for impact starting pitching via trade such as Greinke, Chris Sale or perhaps Justin Verlander, etc. Counting on sudden health and greatness from the guys Friedman did this year no doubt means the same problems in 2017 as 2016. And remember, Kershaw’s injury I warned you about in the past – occurred and could flare up again. Would you feel comfortable with Kenta Maeda as your ace and a group of young pitchers who are nowhere near ready for a 200-innings workload?

The rosy prospects of 2017 rely on one of two things happening – the Guggenheim ownership throwing out the current group or the current group suddenly learning from reality and making adjustments. I assume the second is more realistic as while I’d love for the Moneyball experiment to end in Los Angeles (again), more than likely it will be spun – we got to the championship series! Of course, when Ned Colletti did that two years in a row under Botox loving, penny pinching Frank McCourt, it was argued as not enough.

I guess it’s possible even a math crunching geek like Friedman could understand that his pitch and ditch fantasy approach to getting innings out of his overachieving and no name bullpen wasn’t ideal. But even if that happens, the market is pretty dry. It would indeed mean eating more bad contracts and trading parts many don’t want the team to trade. Them’s the breaks, as they say. Conventional baseball guys know that winter shopping is the easiest and most tried and true time to acquire assets. The July trading deadline is the other. Last winter, seemingly either out of Guggenheim trying not to spend or the executives’ need to look brighter than old school baseball guys, the Dodgers waited the shopping frenzy out. Only after almost every name was taken off the board, did Friedman move. In July, top teams loaded up, Friedman waited till the last hours and traded three prospects for two walk free-agents. It seems the pattern is Friedman always waits, and ultimately is left out in the cold.

His supporters will deny this and argue but the fact is that teams who want to win get the parts they require and do so aggressively. You don’t watch the Red Sox, for example, sit on their hands as the best players are looking for homes. The Cubs loaded up as soon as Theo arrived and are playing in the World Series because of it. For the Dodgers, there’s always an excuse why this player or that didn’t come to LA. Too expensive, a risk, or just plain not interested. The fans, sadly, in a large part have come to not only accept these excuses, but parrot them back as a sort of gang standing behind the bully’s back in support. Stockholm Syndrome – the fans oftentimes are more in support of geeks than they are their own self-interest. Shouldn’t fans of a baseball team be looking after themselves? A team like the Dodgers has gone through multiple ownership changes over the past three decades and so much money has come in via record attendance, increased parking, concessions and merchandise fees, massive TV deals that don’t allow the games to be televised to the majority of the market and any savings planned by playing inexpensive prospects (from previous regimes). As a fan, when I yell out the window like that guy in the movie Network, that I’m as mad as hell… I believe it’s my right as a fan. I would never consider, for example, screaming how awesome a polo shirt wearing dork from Tampa or Oakland is. Yet, the game has changed, and many do just that.

Again, it’s not just the uninformed, there are some real fans swept up in this. Longtime fans – fans over 40 years old – fans who actually witnessed Dodgers greatness in their lifetime and know all too much about the roots dating back to Flatbush. Fans by their very nature, I guess, want to believe. You can’t fault them for that. I do fault them for supporting sleazy executives however over their own best interests.

It’s too early to say what will happen in 2017. It depends, as I noted, whether the front office is sent packing (won’t happen) or they learned from the past. If neither of those things happen, 2017 will be less successful than 2016 just based on the unlikelihood of the entire division phoning it in again. If the Giants add Kenley Jansen, or if the Boston exec who is taking over the Diamondbacks does anything, that alone would make it harder to repeat the success of this year. I have hinted what should have been done and what needs to be done – innings need to be added to the rotation. Reliable, solid innings. It will require bold moves and trades, since signing good pitchers to free-agent contracts apparently escaped the draft pick hoarding dummies the Dodgers employ. It will require finally getting that Ryan Braun for Yasiel Puig (and of course more, Puig has proven he needs to be gone) deal or something like it, so a big right handed presence is added to the lefty heavy lineup. It will mean adding some youth and speed to the top of the order, probably at second base (oh for Dee Gordon or Jose Peraza, huh?). It will mean lopping off frequent DL guys who almost never are healthy and on the active roster.

The Dodgers, we are told, have all the financial wherewithal in the world and want to win. I see cheapness, I see intensely stupid spending. I would like to see that turn into smarter spending, healthier bodies, more positive results and less of the magic potion Friedman and Zaidi and Josh Byrnes and Gabe Kapler and all the rest of them giggle feverishly and try to concoct in their nerd lab. There’s a reason the game was largely unchanged for more than a century, the formula is pretty simple. The tinkering, looking sideways, squinting and trying to be overly clever was devised for teams with no other possible option. A team, going through a near 30-year drought without a championship, with the highest payroll in sports, and more money in the kitty than anyone, should not be building this way. The experiment in Los Angeles is frustrating and ugly. Let’s use some smarts. “Moneyballer” Theo Epstein was wise enough to understand this – turning impossible situations in Boston and now in Chicago around. I guess the question is, how smart (stubborn) are Andrew Friedman and Farhan Zaidi? Or the Guggenheim Group, for that matter.

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  1. Depressed Egg
    October 27, 2016 at 7:26 pm

    Finally found a blog with a clue, thank you…and this team is garbage

  2. badger3
    October 27, 2016 at 9:40 pm

    I think the team is close. All they need is two more 200, or near 200, inning 3.0 ERA starters, a RH thumper and a legit leadoff man. They get that, and all they will need is for the Cubs to all get the flu during the month of October next year. Easy peasy fever queasy.

  3. October 28, 2016 at 2:04 pm

    Chalk another one up for yet another retrograde thinking baseball Luddite cowering in the bunker hoping baseball goes back to the way it was forty years ago. This article is hardly worth taking the time to pick apart and dissect the endless string of fallacious arguments, the resentments of this front office based on fear and lack of understanding, the dubious use of misconstrued evidence taken out of context, but it can summarized as a collection of cynicism masquerading as insight.
    A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds. So it is with the foolish traditionalism in the baseball executive branch of chasing star players at the height of their market hoping to buy wins based on such antiquated stats as batting average. “Moneyball”, if that’s what you want to call it, is not a passing fad that’s going away. It is the de facto standard operating procedure in baseball now. You might as well accept it and have executives who understand it and do it well.

  4. Bitter Old Dodger Fan
    October 28, 2016 at 4:20 pm

    Another fine summation Freudy. It should have been blindingly obvious to all that letting Greinke go without equal or better replacement was going to limit our success to something less than a championship this season. I will give Friedman and company some credit for improving team culture…but it’s still hard to swallow that they did so while leaving us so exposed in the play-offs talent-wise.

    Anyhow – I hadn’t actually intended on posting any thoughts here, but the droolings of the commenter who identifies himself as CyclePower have proved too enticing to pass up.

    This gentleman seems to have wandered in from central casting to play the role of “enlightened sabermetrics advocate” for all of our enjoyment. So thoroughly does he play his part, that he’s actually treated us not only to the standard-issue self-congratulatory tone (in which he imagines himself the “forward thinker” and you the blinkered Luddite), but also to a bravura paraphrasing of Ralph Walldo Emerson, no less!!

    But he does let down where the rubber hits the road, proclaiming your arguments too foolish to address specifically (thus robbing us of what could only be a brilliantly airless takedown of each of your assertions). Nope…he just calls you a foolish traditionalist who doesn’t like progress and quietly pats himself on the back for his vision and intellect.

    Why he’d want to wander onto your blog (other than to exercise his own narcissism) is mysterious. The Internet is crawling with places where folks like him can congregate and make each other feel brilliant. Nope…that’s not enough for this gentleman. He’s a missionary, bringing the “good word” to us savages. How fortunate we are!

    You’d think that an Emerson-quoting futurist like this could comprehend that your complaints aren’t against sabermetrics themselves, but rather the slavish and unproductive usage of them. Your willingness to credit Theo Epstein for his stewardship of the Red Sox and Cubs ought to have provided him a clue…but alas.

    What guys like this never get is that we traditionalists are not wanting to go back in time or stop progress. We simply want to take stock of what may or may not be lost in the process and perhaps see those in charge of guiding the game’s future consider the trade offs.

    Changes to the character of a game that has lasted more than a century, and has woven itself into the fabric of our culture ought to be looked at with some hesitance. Does it really require a Great Leap Forward?

    I think Bill James brought something important to the table. I don’t denigrate it. But the fetishization of “advanced stats” (more self-congratulation inherent in the chosen nomenclature) continues to hurt the quality of the game on the field – and has almost entirely sucked out all the joy to be had from discussing baseball.

    So here is to you Mr. (or Mrs…excuse me if I’ve assumed wrong) CyclePower. You are the great thinker here…delivering us all to a brave new world of shitty baseball and even shittier baseball conversations. Won’t the folks at Fangraphs and Baseball Prospectus be impressed.

  5. October 29, 2016 at 6:33 pm

    ” The experiment in Los Angeles is frustrating and ugly”

    I think this hits the nail 100% on the head. Forget about wins and losses and ask yourself one simple question: do you like paying exorbitant amounts of $ to see platoon baseball. If you do then congratulations.

    I always saw baseball as a beautiful ballet of precise choreography. This administration could care less about that. Steal wins with your statistical prowess even if the product on the field (the thing people are paying to see) morphs into a little league game. Accept the errors, accept the mistakes as long as the game is won. And it does work. They proved, over a long season, a team can win this way. I guess the question is “do you want to win this way”? A personal choice, but IMHO, not a very appealing way

    • Freudy
      December 9, 2016 at 4:10 pm

      If you are platooning all over the field it means you don’t have one player good enough to play everyday. The bench should be used for occasional rest, pinch hitting and injury protection, not starting any given day. I understand the game has changed but as you said, a lot of the fun has been sucked out of it. Moneyball doesn’t work. It worked when no one else was doing it and again, out of necessity as Oakland couldn’t compete any other way. When Theo Epstein got his mitts on a team with money – Boston, he didn’t do what Friedman does here. And when he went to Chicago, the same thing. I’m sure he considers data every day, but he suddenly had the wherewithal to get very good players. Look at his Boston and Chicago rosters – not a lot of hail mary’s like Friedman is doing here in LA. Friedman is amazing – he employs losing small market techniques while somehow managing to waste a record amount of money – on nothing. He should be given an award for doing this balancing act. Being cheap and being wasteful. Quite amazing.

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