Well, I hate to say I told you so, but I told you so.
The 2015 Dodgers season fooled a lot of people – either casual fans, Moneyball lovers or the just delusional. The season went exactly as it had to, given the mismanagement of new genius Andrew Friedman. In case you hadn’t noticed, Friedman’s team of consultants fielded a less competitive team than stocky Ewok lookalike Ned Colletti did. Some have deluded themselves into thinking this year was better… newsflash: it was not.
The Dodgers have A LOT of work to do to get this 30-year drought off their back. As I noted in previous articles, I see them going backward, not forward. There isn’t a single area of the team that doesn’t need fixing. The front office through the field coaches to the lineup and pitching. The fans too could use some self-improvement – read the article I posted last night about the decline of twitter and social media as a whole due to mean-spirited mob mentality.
Very few good things happened this year and for anyone who bought a ticket, paid too much for parking, overpriced beer, food and gear, I sympathize with you. Your hearts are in the right place, but you were all duped. The Guggenheim ownership group has done very little right since coming in, while somehow making in-stadium fans feel things are markedly better than they used to be. Perhaps in terms of massive brain trauma they are, but the team itself, the brand, has almost never been lower in all the years I’ve followed the Dodgers. Let us begin…
I would say the good is very little. The only things I can see Friedman and his suits did well were obvious things I noted as must-haves in 2014. They focused on defense (even this tarnished with the poor trade of Juan Uribe to Atlanta) and got rid of clubhouse distractions Matt Kemp and Hanley Ramirez. They missed one however in believing Yasiel Puig could be transformed without his enablers around – he couldn’t. Puig regressed across the board and for those who used to criticize me for saying Puig would be lucky to have a career like Raul Mondesi’s (assuming his ceiling was far above Mondy’s), you were wrong. Puig was a trouble spot, loafer and unhelpful (while necessary) part of the team all season long.
So defense for a team built around pitching is good, even though outside of two great starters, I would argue they didn’t build around pitching. And as noted, the chemistry fix was smart, but they didn’t complete the job. So all in all the good is at best a B-.
The Dodgers fault from the get-go was allowing Friedman total control of every aspect of the team. He doesn’t seem to be Theo Epstein smart, and even Theo has enough humility to hire good people around him (Joe Maddon, etc.). Friedman, like most egotistical executives in all walks of life, clearly dictated how the Dodgers would play baseball in 2015. I can’t point blame at Don Mattingly or his coaches nearly as much as I can at Friedman. The buck stops with him.
Starting with devaluing Dee Gordon and causing a void of speed and leadoff presence atop the lineup to blowing out players and paying their salaries to play elsewhere (sometimes within the division), to trying to prove his superior intelligence by cherry picking disastrous players either with injury histories or no histories (like Paul DePodesta, Friedman loves AAAA nobodies that prove time and again to be nobodies for a reason), 2015’s shortcomings should rest squarely in the hands of the architect. Friedman WANTED this team the way it was constructed and way it played, so I’m giving him full credit.
Anyone who knows baseball understands pitching wins. The Dodgers pitching – save for the two aces – was always going to be a question mark. Brett Anderson was better than expected in terms of health, but that was always a risky pick up given his physical track record. Brandon McCarthy has always been marginal and also a physical nightmare. The slew of arms Friedman had coming and going on a near daily basis were a who’s who of baseball trivia, none of them making an impact.
A team without a full rotation and very thin bullpen has no place in October, so another first round ouster is no surprise to me. And now one of the aces is leaving, or could be signed at a greater price, for more years, and entering his middle 30s with a lot of mileage on his golden arm, so how the 2016 Dodgers pitching staff will look is anyone’s guess. I will say it has to be better thought out and deeper. There’s something to be said for adding known commodities with a history of health. Not knowing who will pitch a given day, who can come out of the pen, etc. is not a way a front running team should operate. Friedman’s lack of understanding, or brash egotism, sunk the 2015 Dodgers from the start.
But the troubles go deeper than the pitching. The offense, except when clicking in spurts against very bad NL West competition, was a strangely crafted bunch with a failing philosophy of swinging for the fences – the more pull hitting, the better. For the majority of 2015 you saw very little going with the pitch, hitting strategically with runners on base, etc. Friedman, like other Moneyballers before him, wanted a lot of homeruns and to his credit, and Big Mac’s excitement to preach this principle, it worked. The Dodgers hit a lot of homeruns with at face value a not very homerun-friendly lineup. Needless to say it didn’t impress me because swinging for the fences isn’t a great hitting philosophy for an entire team.
The offense worked, except when it didn’t. It didn’t, for example, against good teams, in any month, let alone October. If you look at the 2015 Dodgers record vs. each team, they fattened up against patsies in the West – San Diego, Colorado and Arizona, and had a losing record vs. most good teams – for example, EVERY team that played in this year’s post-season. For good measure, the hated Giants even beat the crap out of the Dodgers.
If you can’t beat good teams, you shouldn’t consider yourself a serious threat to win the World Series. Fans believe with their heart, and are drunk half the game anyway, so to truly feel the Dodgers were a good team this year was ignoring the truth. I’m sure Friedman, a man who relishes data, had to be concerned with the fact his team only could beat bad teams. I think that became apparent with desperate lineup switches in September and October and suddenly leaning heavily on Corey Seager, who wasn’t even deemed promotion-worthy till late in the year.
Friedman needs to stop being Al Davis and hire the right people on the field to make the moves. His baseball philosophy isn’t based in reality. Perhaps he subscribes to Billy Beane’s idea that it’s his job to get the team to October based on statistical probability of what players reasonably should do over the course of the year – once there, it’s impossible to predict. That works fine in Oakland, perhaps, but with a $300M payroll and ability to absorb any amount of contracts or luxury tax penalty? Does. Not. Compute.
While Friedman should be held most responsible for this year’s team, I am not giving a pass to Donnie and his staff. I think, as I said earlier, top to bottom there are problems with the team – from deficiencies to bloat, poor philosophy and unfounded ego.
Donnie is not the great thinker you’d want to manage a top ball club. Luckily for the Dodgers, this isn’t a top ball club. Donnie got the job by being a good soldier under Joe Torre and was a good hitting coach. He apparently is in demand for some reason in Miami, so likely Friedman will toss him out as his scapegoat and Donnie will bask in the Florida sun. That’s okay with me because while a great former player and a decent guy, he’s not a terrific X’s and O’s kind of guy.
I’m not sure who should manage the Dodgers next and it really doesn’t matter what you or I think anyway. Friedman will do what Friedman does and do what he wants. Personally, I’d love to see Friedman sent packing and Dan Evans brought back to construct the team, and Alex Cora hired to manage. The team needs an influx of smarts and not the kind data loving pundits fantasize about either, but actual baseball IQ.
So Donnie will go, the fans will be happy, and neglect the fact that the house is rotten from the inside out. Moving Donnie out will NOT make the Dodgers suddenly a great team, maybe not even a really good team. Donnie and his coaches – all could go in my opinion, especially useless Mac – are all tired and had difficulty getting the most out of the botched collection of players Friedman handed them. I really can’t blame them. When Justin Turner, a former waiver wire bench player, is your big threat, you have trouble. When Kike Hernandez is the best thing you got in a trade for NL batting champ and stolen base leader Dee Gordon, you have trouble. When you’re leaning on journeymen outfielders in a pennant race, guys who weren’t even in the big leagues until they arrived in LA, you have trouble. THIS is a $300M team? Friedman spends as much and as inefficiently as George W. Bush.
Turn over the entire coaching staff and perhaps with Friedman letting HIS staff (he inherited the current group) handle the on-field action, things will improve. It couldn’t get much worse.
The Dodgers won the West in a down year for the Giants and with three other dogs in the race. Beating up on bad teams and losing to anyone with a pulse isn’t “winning” – not with a payroll and expectations the Dodgers had going into this season.
Let’s face it; it’s been over three decades since the Dodgers were a dominating team so humility should be practiced by everyone. When I read tweets from Dodgers fans talking shit to the Giants fans, I chuckle. The Giants have won 3 titles recently, so winning the West – with triple the payroll of the enemies from up north, should not be setting you off into a victory lap.
To get back – if even possible – to the Dodgers way, the Dodgers – Guggenheim – need to get smarter. Hiring “smart guys” (walking around referring to yourselves as smart makes me wonder how smart you are anyway) isn’t enough. The smart guys may ultimately “get it” and create a winning formula, but let’s face it, Friedman’s whirlwind of suspect trades and bad signings were his attempt to “get it” for 2015. The end result, as noted, is less satisfying than Ned Colletti teams under evil Frank McCourt, which at least made it to the NLCS.
I think A LOT of work needs to be done. It’s frightening to think how poorly the team played, how bad the hitting philosophy is, the station to station base running, lack of team speed, strikeouts, 3/5 of a bad rotation, soon to perhaps be 4/5, a terrible bullpen, and now no Nancy Bea Hefley and soon, no Vin Scully. Not to mention no TV for the majority of people living in Los Angeles.
While thugs beating the crap out of fans aren’t happening as much, the dark embarrassment of the Dodgers is still alive and well. I would love to say, sign Zack Greinke, that will fix everything, or hire this guy, sign this FA, etc. The truth is there are many, many issues here and it starts with the ownership group, the front office and as they say, the shit rolls downhill. Simply blaming Don Mattingly would be oversimplifying the problem. Mattingly didn’t deal Dee Gordon, didn’t sign Brandon McCarthy, admire Yasmani Grandal for his pitch framing or Kike Hernandez for his tight fitting pants. The team played as well as they could given what they are. Losing a 5 game series to the Mets when you have Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke going 4 of the 5 is pretty god awful. All that was missing was Scott Van Slyke trying to out freeze Joe Kelly in a human statue standoff.
The Dodgers need to get A LOT better. It’s up to Guggenheim to figure out how to do that. Calling Dan Evans. Dan Evans to the Dodgers front office please.
The Dodgers will win the West. This will cause many to celebrate and talk shit to Giants fans who can take the high road and just point to the only scoreboard that matters – three WS rings while the Dodgers have chased their tail for three decades.
Winning the division means something if you’re a good team, but the Dodgers are a Jekyll and Hyde team that is only good when their two other-worldly aces start, or if they’re playing incredibly bad clubs. When the other three starters go, or they play teams that are actually good, they convulse and collapse in a heap.
The Dodgers have a few things to consider as they wrap up this relatively easy Sept and head to the post-season. The knee-jerk dreamers in #DodgerFam will curse and throw tantrums at the ideas but here they are…
– The Dodgers post-season success will depend entirely on Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke continuing their Cy Young/MVP pace. Any slip up will cost the Dodgers dearly. Even with the team’s anemic offense and terrible approach to scoring runs, a 1-0 victory is possible any time the two aces take the hill.
– That said, the post-season success really depends on Kershaw. Greinke’s less likely to fold when it counts but let’s face it, after two embarrassing Octobers, if Kershaw makes it three, the Dodgers division win won’t mean much as they’ll all be back home on the couch listening to FOX blowhards call the action when it should be Vin Scully. Kershaw needs to dig deep and win meaningful games, not regular season games that look nice on the stat sheet but ultimately are less pressure-packed. Get that monkey off your back, Clayton or the Dodgers are done. It will especially be interesting if/when Greinke opts out and decides to go to a real team. Then what? Kershaw and Mat Latos vs. the world? 😮
– Is winning the West all that Dodgers fans – and the organization – care about? After last year’s drubbing, many Dodgers fans were laughing at the Giants as they didn’t win the West. No, they just won the WS. In this day and age of baseball, winning the division isn’t that terribly important. If you’re a great team like the Royals or Cardinals, it’s a nice thing to hang your hat on. The Dodgers? Not so much. Let’s see what 2015’s team is all about and what a division win amounts to.
I could go into the offense, the pen, the on field coaches, the front office, etc., but why bother? I’ve had my say about that. All of it is bad, but true. We can reconvene when the Dodgers season ends to see if two incredible aces were enough to win the team a title. If so, it’s $300M+ well spent. I just believe you could get two aces for 1/3 that price and probably a better offensive approach, coaches, front office and of course bullpen. Oh, that bullpen. Rocking gently as if I’ve seen a ghost.
Playoff edition long form therapy session…
Well, Oct baseball is in the air and already there have been some remarkable games. The Dodgers, of course, have huge issues after Game One’s surprise collapse of Kershaw. I have said – and gotten a lot of heat for it – that while Kershaw owns the regular season, the last feather in his very young cap is showing he can carry that domination over to the post-season. Now whether it’s the Cardinals (I think it is) or just being psyched out from last year’s Game Six flop (also a factor, but coupled with the Cardinals, an even larger one, no doubt), something has made Kershaw an average post-season starter.
Of course his career – albeit with a lot of innings logged already – is just starting, and there’s plenty of time to find his way, it is troubling that a guy who is compared routinely to Koufax and other greats is so shaky when it counts most. What went wrong? Well, the Cardinals just know how to get into the shaggy haired head of his, and they’re also a smart and somewhat dirty team. The good news is the Dodgers showed fight last night (they didn’t last year) when Puig got beaned. And they also scraped and fought back to make it interesting in the last few innings (something they hadn’t done all season). Don’t panic yet, but Greinke is also sporting a post-season ERA over 4, so which Dodgers team comes out today in Game Two? The pussies from last year, the ones who understandably could be demoralized from last night’s drubbing or the team that showed fight vs. Molina? Just a spark of life they showed gives me faith.
I think the Dodgers and underwhelming manager Donnie Baseball have an interesting pickle here. Would you rush Kershaw back on 3 days’ rest, knowing Kershaw has been decimated twice in a row by the Cardinals? Or would you feel safer with another option? That’s a big question, as well as why Donnie and Honeycutt didn’t get out to Kershaw earlier when he was melting down on National television. Donnie said his face looked ok and he said (when he did eventually go out there) that Kershaw claimed he was ok. Note to Donnie and Honeycutt – any sort of competitor is going to say he’s ok – go by what you’re watching. Kershaw’s bombardment and collapse was pretty obvious, so where the Dodgers are in trouble this Oct is having a poor manager at the helm. Of course one could point to Ned Yost, perhaps dumber than Donnie, as someone who lucks by, but I’d say that’s mostly because his team is just so scrappy and fundamentally sound. I don’t think Donnie has that luxury – though he does have “superstar potential.”
Looking around at the other games, I am really impressed with the aforementioned Royals. Hey, squint and you can watch a team in blue and white playing baseball the right away, and think it’s your Dodgers. Defense, speed, pitching, relief pitching, clutch hitting, chemistry, power when needed… is this a Dan Evans designed club? Anyway, I am rooting for the Royals, hope they sweep Anaheim, and give the deserving fans in KC something they haven’t enjoyed in quite a long time. This is the type of team I wish Stan Kasten built. No superstars, no egos, just gamers and baseball players. Take note, baldy Kasten.
I am also impressed with the Orioles, who I’ve long rooted for as another old time team with good fans. Their beating of the Tigers is fun to watch, although somewhat bittersweet knowing how many of their guys have had PED suspicions or busts. Nonetheless, like KC, they play hard and are beating up a powerful Detroit team that thought stars could make up for lack of bullpen. Oct is won with defense and pitching and to skimp on the pen, both in Detroit and LA, is a huge risk. I would prefer a lineup of flame throwing relief pitchers like KC has to mega stars who strike a pose before walking up to home plate to hit. I’m a purist, and if you disagree with my assessment, you’re part of the problem.
I actually hoped the Giants would beat the Nats, which pisses off some of my friends who can’t stand the Giants. Unbiasedly I say the Giants aren’t as good as some of the teams playing now, but they have a track record of winning and Bochy gets a lot out of them when it matters most. The Pittsburgh win isn’t too surprising given the Bucs countered Bumgarner with Volquez (wtf?) but beating the pundits’ darling, Strasburg, was impressive. The reason I want the Giants to win is so the Dodgers (assuming they can get past the Cardinals) don’t have to deal with them. While I am not a fan of Matt Williams and hate Harper, on paper the Nats seem the best team in playoff action. Their 5 starters are crazy good and anyone thinking, well, the Dodgers have Kershaw, Greinke and maybe a healthy Ryu, needs to look at the Nats starters and especially their success since Sept.
Anyway, this is a fun time of year. You can flip from one game to another and tune in to teams you perhaps never watched all year. You can see each pitch matter, each out be meaningful, and you can get swept away in breathtaking baseball. I will leave it that I warned of Kershaw come Oct, and am skeptical he can go back out there on short rest and somehow dominate after getting torched for a bushel full of runs the last two tries against the Cards. I will say the fight and scraping back the blue did was impressive. Where was this fight last year when the Cardinals made a mockery of the Dodgers? I would urge the players to keep up that aggressive approach because the Cardinals will not stop pitching inside. The sign stealing, perhaps, is a problem the coaching staff will have to address, but the dirty shots are something that cannot be tolerated. Pitching inside to power hitters is smart. Sometimes a pitch gets away, and that happens. The Dodgers – not known for being mentally tough – need to take a page from the St. Louis book. Pitch inside to Holliday and Molina. Don’t let the hitters get comfortable in the box. If they balk, fight with them. This is a five game series, each out and each game is huge. The Dodgers have to come out tonight and make the statement they were trying to make last night, before the wheels came off the bus. Make Vin proud, win Game Two.