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It’s July and Time for Dodger Fan Déjà Vu

July 9, 2018 Comments off

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Hello, all – I hope your summer is going well and if you live in Los Angeles and happened to just experience the heat wave that hit us Friday, I hope you’re alive. Palm Springs weather – fun times!

 

I thought I would write a short long-form piece as I haven’t in a while and with the mid-season point upon us, trade winds blowing, etc., I felt it might be fun to pontificate. As always, I understand my viewpoints are too sensible for many of you, so by no means think I feel you need to align yourself with me. If you prefer to feel all is well because you lack perspective (e.g. you are young and don’t know better) or brainwashed by fantasy baseball and Sabermetrics gurus, by all means, get thrilled over nothing. Life is full of disappointments; the Dodgers have been a constant for three decades now.

 

I have been getting dribs and drabs on local sports talk radio, the bloggers, the non-controversial beat writers who don’t want to lose their clubhouse access that the Dodgers are back in it! Awesome! They’re a top team! Easily a World Series contender! Name the headline.

 

It’s hard on Twitter to summarize thoughts in the limited about of space, especially to passersby who don’t have a frame of reference and context. To some of you, wisely you get it. In a nutshell, I have been a Dodgers fan all my life and somewhere around the time the ball club was sold to Fox, I started to formulate my current crusty exterior.

 

I witnessed a wealthy entertainment company come in and buy my beloved team to create a local sports network. Oh sure, while their intentions were selfish, they did open up payroll, which at certain times could have helped you and I, the suckers who just root for our team as a pleasant diversion from everyday life. The problem there was Kevin Malone was hired because he was a rising name in baseball circles and told Fox what they wanted to hear – that he could simultaneously rebuild a farm that Peter O’Malley let fall apart AND at the same time buy a winner in one off-season. No respectable individual would claim they could do one or the other immediately, let alone both at the same time. Kevin Malone, as some of you might recall, was an insecure guy who called himself “The Sheriff” and wanted to make his mark. He was Donald Trump before Donald Trump’s political interests, or Andrew Friedman when Andrew Friedman was in college not getting laid.

 

Malone’s gaffs caused Fox to close the vault and even though Dan Evans (you’d like him, kids – he was all about data before it was cool!) replaced Malone, they had a strong enough foothold on their sports network empire not to trust baseball executives with any more of their money. That led to Frank McCourt.

 

Like Fox, McCourt bought the team – well, that’s not correct… McCourt was given the team by that era’s shady commissioner, Bud Selig. MLB and Fox were in bed financially so when Fox wanted out of baseball ownership, Bud did whatever they wanted to make that happen. McCourt was handed the team without any serious wherewithal and Fox co-signed to make it happen. McCourt’s interests were as selfish as Fox’s. He wanted fame, wealth and a lavish lifestyle. It was a low-risk investment and he exploited the fans’ loyalty as he got daily haircuts, many mansions, and eventually was forced to sale after stadium visitors got beaten into comas, checks to Vin Scully bounced and people finally boycotted the games.

 

The Dodgers were back on the market and the third molesting uncle came along – a wealthy investment firm that used a Trojan horse in the guise of friendly, smiling Magic Johnson to again sucker fans into thinking better days were ahead. You can read my brilliance in archived columns here, explaining what was happening each step of the way. It wasn’t like I was a genius but I created Dodger Therapy as a place for all of us long abused fans to talk it out. The problem, most people are either unaware, stupid or easily conned. At the time, there was no Donald Trump to compare this to, but as we are all aware, nowadays there’s a great divide and for various reasons, one side is perfectly sure that the idiocy and lies make perfect sense in some way.

 

Magic knew about as much about baseball as your grandmother did, and that’s an insult actually to your grandmother. He was used for his smile, his connection to the city and to make a large investment firm buying a baseball team seem somehow plausible. It has since come out (I told you years ago, again, go back through all the old columns for yourself) that the Guggenheim group apparently used money from investors inappropriately and are under investigation for it. Their motive, of course, was to make a shitload of money off the Dodgers pending TV deal and the fans stupidity.

 

They paid $1B (!!!) over asking to McCourt AND let him retain stadium parking lots because the idea of paying $2B total for an $8B TV deal seemed a tidy profit. McCourt put in almost nothing when he “bought” the Dodgers from Fox and ended up massively rich, so much so his ex-wife sued after noticing how her pasty, deadbeat husband (who she left financially for dead) slither his way into a fiscal windfall due to everyone using the Dodgers as a pyramid scheme.

 

My point has always been to call out what is wrong, where injustice is happening, where hypocrisy is occurring and what could be done about it. I know I am not a voice anyone really listens to, not rosy enough, not full of shit enough. My take sounds bad because, well, after 30 years of mediocrity, it is. That is a long time. 30 years. More than many fans’ entire lifetimes. Of course, then some old crackpot saying “Andrew Friedman sucks!” or “Guggenheim is screwing you!” does not resonate. How could it? Maybe if I offered a bag of weed or a vape device with each Twitter post, I’d get more interest? Note to self…

 

Over recent years, I have grown tired of battling with idiots online. I do not mind if you have a different opinion than I do, but at least make a credible defense of your point of view. Sadly, I have wasted far too many years observing this downward trend so when some fresh voice pops out of the woodwork, it’s easy to defend myself against such ill-informed ideas. Follow the team for half a century, then come back to me.

 

Each year that has passed recently the fans get their hopes up based on what they feel a baseball team should do, so therefore the Dodgers should too. I agree with that, but unfortunately, what many do not get is quite intentionally Guggenheim hired Andrew Friedman and his band of small-market dipshits due to their ability to look for ringers when given limited resources. I cannot fully explain how it is Guggenheim wants to cost cut while entrusting their boy to overspend on bullshit, but that’s the interesting thing here. More interesting is how no matter what Friedman peddles, fans eat it up. If he does nothing, or almost nothing, at the trade deadline – he’s heralded for his genius! If he sits out the winter while every other team improves, he’s brilliant! If he overspends on marginal players or those who never will play a game at Dodger Stadium, he’s crafty! No, I’m here to make it known that he’s just an idiot and has no clue what he’s doing. It may have worked in Tampa, since the stage was much smaller, but it isn’t working here.

 

Today I flipped on local LA radio briefly to catch Vic the Brick and Fred Roggin blathering about how the Dodgers need to trade prospects for Orioles star Manny Machado and Zach Britton. They reasoned, prospects are well, just that, prospective, and these guys are stars. I can’t argue with that logic, and I have made similar statements hundreds of times myself. The flaws to their comments, and those in all the blogs and mainstream newspaper pieces I read is a) they’re assuming the Dodgers actually want to go all-in, and b) that these moves would do it, put them on par with the best teams in baseball, most of which are powerhouses in the AL. Let me explain.

 

Again, this is mostly to summarize for those who may not know much about me and my ideas. While it’s traditional to say – “Hey, the trade deadline is coming up, the Dodgers should get (this star, that star)…” – you’re not being honest with yourself. You’re considering the Dodgers a well-run, large market baseball team. They are not. They haven’t been since Andrew Friedman came into town. You are assuming also the Dodgers want to win, really win. No, Guggenheim is happy just getting butts in the seats and selling beer, food, merch and parking access. At this point, Guggenheim is more concerned with investigations than the product on the field. After all, they got their TV riches (most of you don’t get the games on TV though).

 

If the Dodgers were all in, last year was when they should have been there. Last season they had a team that ran away with the West and had options available to cement a championship available. Instead, they waited to the last few minutes before the trade deadline to get the Texas Rangers executives to blink and ended up with Yu Darvish as their savior, as well as a couple marginal/bad relief pitchers. Fans were ecstatic! Of course, I had Darvish on one of my fantasy teams and understood how poor he had been most of the season. The Dodgers could have added Justin Verlander instead, but that would have meant paying him in 2018, so they let Houston acquire him. That one non-move cost the Dodgers the 2017 World Series as well as to perpetuate the constant revolving door in the Dodgers rotation this season. If you think it isn’t fair to criticize the Dodgers for what they did or didn’t do vs. what Houston did – do some research on relative market size between LA and Houston, the time between World Series appearances, etc. My point is, a little team like Houston took last year seriously, a big team like the Dodgers did not.

 

We then went through a winter where Houston added another ace and pretty much every other team worked to shore up needs. The Dodgers did nothing all off-season and fans of course lauded them as geniuses! “You just want to waste money!” the sycophants would argue. “What about trades?” I might counter. “You want to give up our future!” You cannot argue with people anymore, they resort to bullying and if they falter, their pack will take up their fight. As a lifetime fan, I just want a team that more or less resembles a team I followed my whole life, or even a very good team that looks slightly different. Your “patriotism” is immediately questioned. You can’t be a Dodger fan and say something bad about Andrew Friedman, and you can’t be an American and say something bad about Agent Orange. Both are supreme rulers; we must bow before their greatness and kiss their feet. Our own self-interests are secondary, third, fourth, to what makes them look good.

 

So now, fans, like this time last year, are waiting for the big deals to occur. One of two things will happen – a) no deals will occur, or very minor ones to appease the rabble and the team will fall sort but say “We tried! We were in on all those stars!” or b) they learned from inaction last July and will deal for some star power. Of course, if b were really much of an option, why didn’t they learn during the hot stove league? They assumed their oft-injured pitchers and inexperienced kids were enough?

 

Let’s just consider now Manny Machado and Zach Britton, since their names were brought up today. Could the Dodgers be working on a deal for both? Sure. The Orioles would love to get rid of them and get something for their rebuild, but would a team probably not looking to keep Machado beyond this year deal anything of serious worth for him? I can see if the Yankees did, or Boston, or Chicago, as they would consider resigning him, but the Dodgers? While the Dodgers could afford the price Machado would want, and no doubt he’d be thrilled to be in a large market, would they run up the credit card immediately after paying it down? Would Machado go back to third with Corey Seager coming back? If so, what happens to Justin Turner? I guess you could go Turner at first, Machado at third and the ghost of Pepe Frias at second but until I see Andrew Friedman target a real star and sign him, I can’t believe it. Now if Machado was an untested Cuban kid, or an oft-injured journeyman starting pitcher, sure.

 

Everyone is up in arms because the Halos took two of three from the Dodgers in Anaheim this weekend. They immediately say “The Dodgers need Machado! They need offense!” Well, I’d say they just scored 30 runs recently in a series vs. Pittsburgh and have set homerun records, so perhaps not. I would say the Dodgers entire offensive approach is feast or famine and has been since Moneyball came into town. No one hits line drives, no one not named Justin Turner settles for a single when runners are in scoring position, no one steals a base, etc. It’s all about swinging hard, every time, and get that home run. It’s why a guy like Max Muncy came come out of nowhere and swings from the heels every at bat and sits near the break with 20 homers and 38 rbi (everyone wants him to be an all-star, btw, which is rather humorous to me). Is offense though the Dodgers biggest need?

 

So you have to believe the Dodgers would go all in now when they didn’t last year or this past winter and that they feel Machado makes the difference and can get them back to the World Series, or hopefully win it, when last year and this winter the prospects were too important to move. You also have to factor in that they’d be ok losing prospects for a rental, or spending a fortune to keep Machado. All of that is worth mulling over.

 

Then there’s Britton. Now in my opinion, and I heard it echoed last night during ESPN’s telecast, you need a rotation capable of logging innings, a bullpen, and a closer to win. They brought this up, as I have, in criticism of Moneyball’s patchwork approach to a game – where 9 pitchers are trotted out nightly, starters going anywhere from 3-5 innings, and no real setup man to speak of. Obviously, of many issues I have with Andrew Friedman and his philosophies, the fundamental ignoring of pitching as vital is first and foremost. So would a setup man for closer Kenley Jansen be helpful? Why of course! btw, Kenley being the only representative to the all-star game (as of now) for the Dodgers pitching staff should tell you all you need to know.

 

As for Britton, he was the best relief pitcher in baseball in 2016 but this is 2018. He isn’t good this year and while might be helpful if thrown into a Machado deal, is certainly no guarantee to give the Dodgers a lockdown bullpen. A sexy name, for sure, but the solution to Paul Goldschmidt? I don’t believe so.

 

We have a few weeks to see what will happen. Personally, I’d respect Andrew Friedman more if he did what the Yankees did a few years ago and traded players away for a short term rebuild. If he got some talent, then smartly went shopping – both in free-agency and trade and revamped the roster for 2019 and beyond. But this is like asking a chicken to give you milk. It would require Andrew Friedman to undergo a “Regarding Henry” experience and completely change his personality. He is happy tinkering, making ten moves when one or two would suffice, and taking the long way around and problem that presents itself. He’s the classic scenario of the man being too proud to ask for directions.

 

Could the Dodgers win if they dealt kids for Machado and Britton? Sure. They could win doing nothing. Wait, win? Win the World Series? I wouldn’t go that far. I think as it stands now they could win the West or make the wildcard but realistically, as Vic noted today, they are pretty thin if you look at their lineup vs. an AL power house lineup. Of course the little 1988 Dodgers teams beat the Bash Brothers, Eck, Dave Stewart and the rest. I just don’t see any reason to believe this team has magic, or at least anymore pixie dust as last year’s team. Maybe more desperate, but not more magic.

 

Personally I would say the best thing that could happen is Guggenheim is found guilty of fraud, is forced to sell, Andrew Friedman and his clowns are pushed out by a new owner and we start all over again. A new uncle to promise us a better life. Hey, it beats what we have now. Will that owner be kinder to us, consider our feelings and not use us to finance some scheme? Probably not, but then the world has become a pretty dark place, so to assume there are rainbows and unicorns anymore is probably not realistic. Unless of course you are a fan of a team that seems to try year in and year out, isn’t using algorithms to calculate bare minimums to acquire wins, etc. My suggestion is forget Machado, forget Britton, buy yourselves a Yankees, Red Sox or Astros hat. If you are adverse to that, try a Mariners, Cubs or Brewers hat. Less wear and tear on your psyche and your doctor will praise you for your reduced blood pressure.

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What Dodgers Fans Should Know

April 20, 2016 2 comments

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The season is new and fans are euphoric over the early returns. The $236M payroll Dodgers beat the crap out of the sad sack Padres to begin the season, then played a real team in San Francisco and struggled, but rebounded at home before getting the crap kicked out of them by the lowly Braves last night. The Dodgers played sloppy defense, perhaps hung over from Atlanta area nightlife, and Alex Wood’s effort made you wish his crazy whip like motion landed him on the DL. But, as Eric Karros famously used to say, “It’s only April.” The season is 6 months long and baseball fans shouldn’t look at the game like they might the NFL – while every game matters, they really don’t… well, until they do when you’re doing mathematics in September.

 

A wise friend of mine found the article below and I thought I would share. I liked it a lot and it made me think of some of my earlier articles from last season and this past winter. To me what’s happening with the Dodgers is very simple and obvious, but to casual fans or the over trusting, celebrating Kike Hernandez, Charlie Culberson or whatever other utility castoff you worship, it’s not. Anyway, here’s the link…

 

http://www.ladowntownnews.com/opinion/dodgers-owners-have-failed-the-fans/article_2bce74e2-05a8-11e6-a9da-8fee1b566d1c.html

 

My take, as I’ve stated before, is that Guggenheim cares about business and the bottom line. They came in and paid well scrubbed Frank McCourt $2B, or $1B+ over the estimated asking price, knowing full well they would win the bid and soon gain major profits from the deal. McCourt quickly sold, ran off with his profits (after profiting every step of the way from the time he slithered into Los Angeles) and a smiling Magic Johnson convinced fans the worst was over.

 

Most fans who are a bit more serious about the Dodgers have noticed not much has changed. Guggenheim promptly signed off on a lucrative TV deal that netted them over $8B, knowing full well that to make the deal work Time Warner Cable would need to pass the cost on to the fans. Guggenheim didn’t care how it all worked out, taking the money and clearing over $6B after the buying price. That number goes up of course as they increase prices on tickets, merch, food, parking, etc. All of the gate proceeds and other revenue streams are gravy.

 

Of course Time Warner could not swing a deal to pass the cost on to the fans, meaning 70% of the city is going on two years without the Dodgers on TV. Many fans are getting pissed, others say, “Switch TV providers” or “Get MLB.TV” and can care less.

 

The damage being done affects both new and old generations of Dodgers fans. New fans, and young people you would hope Guggenheim would like to one day become Dodgers fans, could care less since the Dodgers are mostly invisible if you live within Los Angeles. No TV, no concern. There are many other diversions for young people to get into without watching Dodgers games on TV. This is especially problematic since baseball is a dying sport in terms of young viewers, so you’d think if there was a way to appeal to them, Guggenheim would be very interested. I guess they assume by the time it matters, they will have sold the team, their profits already tucked away in Swiss and Cayman Islands accounts.

 

For the older fans, the two years of the botched TV deal means no Dodgers and more, no end of Vin Scully’s career. You would assume if Guggenheim didn’t consider this when they made the deal (they didn’t), they certainly would after the bad publicity last year. A caring ownership would have done everything possible over the off-season to ensure everyone in Los Angeles who wanted to see and listen to Vin could in 2016. But here we are – hollow celebrations of Vin Scully Avenue and Opening Day pomp and circumstance, yet nothing has been done to correct the actual problem – fans largely do not get to relish in all things Scully one last time.

 

I could go into how the payroll is high (highest in the NL) but the Dodgers have half a rotation and almost no bullpen, and are playing utility players from other organizations most days, but the focus here is the con job being thrust upon Dodgers fans. We are being played for fools and while the money is vaulted, the fans in-fight and hope Magic responds to a tweet to “fix the TV situation.” Note to everyone – Magic is just a bit more an owner than a guy working at the car wash and could care less about such things. It’s the NBA playoffs; that’s Magic’s focus in April.

 

So sadly the only way out of this pickle is the same way we got out of the Frank McCourt shit storm. The fans have to get fed up and stop going to games, and make a big stink so Guggenheim correct the error of their ways. If they keep letting Time Warner be the only villain, and slowly cutting on-field costs with dual incompetency (Friedman/Zaidi) then they win. Before long you will have a team of kids and utility players and will be paying top dollar to watch them – at the stadium, as there won’t be any other way to do it.

 

The plan worked last time – a rat was thrown out and forced to sell. Don’t think for a moment that what is happening now is all that different than what happened before. They have substituted unsafe stadium conditions and personal injury for little opportunity to watch games and higher costs. You are being sold a bill of goods. If you find all of this just great, my argument will mean nothing to you. I wish you the best and you need not reply. But if you didn’t consider this before or your blood has been boiling, do something about it. Kick, scream, refuse to go to games, and stop swilling the Kool-Aid. A con is a con is a con and this is like a déjà vu from hell all over again. If being asked to follow mediocre pitching and marginal players who may or may not be big leaguers isn’t enough for you, perhaps the fact Guggenheim is making over $6B (billion with a B) while you are being deprived Vin Scully’s last games might.

For Too Trusting Dodgers Fans, it’s Time to Squint and Use Your Imagination

January 28, 2016 12 comments

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The off-season used to be my favorite time of the baseball year, which is odd since that’s when the teams aren’t playing. I think it was my constructive way of making the cold stretch between playoff baseball and spring training more bearable. Nowadays baseball is a 12 month sport. You can listen to MLB Network Radio or watch their TV channel and get year-round coverage. In the past, you listened on terrestrial radio and hoped some baseball mention occurred between the incessant NFL and NBA talk. We’ve come a long way, baby.

The off-season was a good time for a baseball geek because you could marinate in the months of talk, trade ideas, free-agent possibilities, non-roster invites, etc. Everyone is a winner as the next season approaches, until of course you take off your rose colored glasses and realize your team, possibly, isn’t that good. Being a large market team, one with much past success, a Dodgers fan generally has had reason to be optimistic. Even in lesser years, the downside wasn’t as bleak as those of other teams in smaller markets.

When Frank McCourt was allowed into town by corrupt commish Bud Selig, Dodgers fans were exposed to a reality fans in many of MLB’s markets had to cope with each year. For us, the spoiled and somewhat entitled, it was quite a rude awakening. A Dodgers team cash poor? A relatively dry farm? Bankruptcy? Bounced checks to stadium personnel, including beloved icon Vin Scully? Stadium beatings? What was going on?

McCourt was forced out and a slew of possible owners were trotted out. The group who bought the Dodgers were a global investment firm with deep pockets and selling their plans with the big smile of Los Angeles’ favorite son, Magic Johnson. Fans were so happy to be rid of McCourt and his pathetic reign as owner that they wanted to believe wholeheartedly in the Guggenheim Group who used loveable Magic as their mascot. Magic wouldn’t do us wrong! That’s what long-suffering, brutalized Dodgers fans wanted to believe. Magic played basketball, and pretty much only talks about basketball, but hey, he knew Tommy Lasorda and went to some games, so that’s close enough.

Well, after some immediate maneuvers to get butts (dollars) back in the seats, and after several different plans, different architects, it’s beginning to look a lot like the same old, same old, just in a different package. Instead of Frank McCourt and his now ex-wife using the team and fans as their own personal ATM, we have Guggenheim reaping huge profits from a large gate and even larger, record TV deal. $8B is a lot of money, and more obscene when the majority of fans in the LA area cannot watch the games, and are only “treated” to Vin Scully for three innings on radio (in these Scully’s last years behind the mic).

Each plan was foolproof, until it wasn’t. Now the Dodgers have doubled down on well-regarded executives, while ignoring most aspects of on the field talent. If the Dodgers faced off against other teams with executives, they might have a reasonable chance of winning. As it is, a portion of fans are still desperate to believe (and have to believe), while others, myself included, are tired of being played.

The plan is genius – turn the fans on themselves while Guggenheim and the executives all get rich. Let fans bicker and call one another names, while logically they should all be unified since they have the same common goal – a good, entertaining and championship quality Dodgers team. Like America itself, due to social media and brains warped by technology perhaps, the fans are angry and divided. Half are angry at those fans who are not “real fans” (i.e. have the exact same opinions as they do) and the rest are angry at the snow job they’ve endured for about 3 decades. If one knows anything about the Dodgers, they will realize that this drought is especially shameful for an organization that has championships and history on its side. The Dodgers of 2016 are not the Dodgers of the 40s, 50s, 60s, 70s, 80s or even the past decade plus.

In all my years, I haven’t seen a situation like this as a Dodgers fan. Oh sure, McCourt’s era was worse on many levels, but the consistent drubbing we’ve been asked to endure since the end of the O’Malley era, through FOX, and even today, is beyond explainable. Fans should be mad as hell and bright enough to realize when you have the largest payroll in baseball you should have good enough a team to at least participate deep into Oct. Fans should understand that when you’re given a window of opportunity to win now, you need to seize it. When you’re given Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke in their prime and “unlimited resources”, you have to keep that together and win a few titles. At least one.

What has happened the past few years especially is sad. That half the Dodgers fan base is more impressed by slick operating “suits” than talented players like Dee Gordon is mystifying. Throughout my years following the Dodgers, my friends and I, and fans we encountered along the way or at games never had more allegiance to executives than the players wearing the uniform. There were a few cases where some idiot disrespected the uniform and we wanted them gone, but those incidents were rare. When Al Campanis, a good longtime Dodgers face made indefensible remarks on “Nightline”, we understood that all his years of loyal service did not make him exempt. We did not root Campanis on, we wanted a winning ball club. We got one in 1988, and Campanis has seldom been thought about since.

Nowadays it’s all about the executives. The Dodgers main genius is Andrew Friedman, who did remarkable things in small market Tampa but has been churning his wheels here on the big stage. He spends like a demon, yet is frugal at other moments. He buys items one wouldn’t buy, and passes on obvious ones. His supporters point this out as brilliance and align with him to catch some of the moonbeams that run off, but so far there is nothing to show for all this expense and odd logic. I argue, and half of the fans agree, that the team is going backwards. I think many could understand taking steps back if it were necessary. For example, Houston cleaned house, rebuilt and became very good last year. Philadelphia is reloading after riding out the veterans for too many years. Colorado, perhaps, will get it and clear out some of the familiar names to acquire the pitching they desperately need. None of these cities are Los Angeles, however. The Dodgers are rebuilding while still riding the largest payroll. That could be a smart approach if the money being spent amounted to terrific players. You could then say “We have all these great players to win now, plus we’re setting ourselves up to win for years to come.” A dynasty, if you will.

There are talented kids on the current roster as well as in the farm, not so much thanks to Friedman and his group though. These players mostly came into the system via Ned Colletti and Logan White, who ironically were pushed aside and out. And mostly I go back to the money being spent – on payoffs for players to go elsewhere, Cuban players who never amount to anything, and overspending on marginal big leaguers that could have been had for much less. While this money is being wasted, corners are cut elsewhere, whether it’s letting Greinke go, not signing free-agent relief pitchers of note (they did sign Joe Blanton, who might turn out to be a decent pick up based on last season’s relief role, but there were other, more proven options), bats, etc. I am not sure what the Dodgers payroll will be when they open the season, and to me it’s just a number at this point – Guggenheim is loaded and should be paying a lot – but I do know I look at the roster and don’t see the value.

As I said at the top, the off-season is a fun time as any team still has a chance. Could the Dodgers and their large payroll win in 2016? Maybe. But in honesty I see a team with all the problems of last year’s unit with more weaknesses beside. The Dodgers fortunes rest on good luck happening, which is ok if you’re a fan in Tampa, Houston, Milwaukee, etc. but it shouldn’t be the case for fans with the largest attendance in the league and deepest pockets. When your owners ink an $8B TV contract, you shouldn’t be hoping they “save some money” and not re-sign Greinke, or not get a few solid relief pitchers, a big bat, etc. When Guggenheim collects all the money they have been since coming into town, as fan you should DEMAND the best talent possible and yes, a championship team. Whenever I hear Moneyball and geeks who made it work in small markets come in, the hairs on the back of my neck instantly ride up. Paul DePodesta’s worth in Oakland is a nice story, as is Friedman’s in Tampa, but Los Angeles is a big market and hello! the fans here deserve a winner after a nearly 30 year dry spell. i.e. there is urgency here in the City of Angels that there isn’t in Oakland or Tampa. That’s why I think they hired the wrong guys for the job – again. Guggenheim either ignored history or are stupid. The Sabermetrics first philosophy failed when DePodesta assembled the most laughable roster I’ve ever seen as a Dodgers fan, and now the mistake is happening again. I just wonder if the NEXT owner will learn from this latest turn.

If the Dodgers get freak like production from Corey Seager and electrifying stuff from Julio Urias, and get very lucky with health by known brittle players, and maybe the Giants and Diamondbacks suffer some setback, it’s quite possible the Dodgers can sneak in. Again, I’d say a lot has to break right for this to happen. If it does happen, it would be even luckier if it played in October. The true Moneyball philosophy Billy Beane has noted several times is using the analytics to fill out a statistical Bingo card so the team gets X number of hits, X number of runs, X number of wins, etc. out of their machine April-September. October, as Beane has said, is “luck” and the algorithm goes out the window.

Ironically the Dodgers already had a division winning team under Colletti, and were in a better position in October as well. Recall, Colletti’s Dodgers, even with McCourt pocketing money left and right, were very close to the World Series – twice. The team has gotten weaker since, in the bullpen especially, and with a lighter, more party-like atmosphere that I would argue winning teams generally don’t exhibit. On top of that, now the biggest October factor – Kershaw + Greinke – is gone. The half of the fan base that buys anything Friedman throws out there, argue the team is deeper now. I would argue, loading up on lesser pitchers with injury question marks is not depth, its quantity. Quantity over quality isn’t a selling point to me, and if it comes in handy, it might April-September, but not October. Going into short series, I would much prefer having Kershaw and Greinke (even with Kershaw’s October jitters of the past) to Kershaw and Scott Kazmir, or Kershaw and Kenta Maeda. So a team that had a formula for winning in the regular season but not in October addressed (“fixed”) the regular season part, not the post-season portion. That’s Moneyball, and why it hasn’t worked in Los Angeles.

We have several weeks now before pitchers and catchers report and a month before spring games begin. The executive loving faithful remain dogged that Friedman will not disappoint, he will make a big trade, or trades, and the Dodgers will be right up there with MLB Network Radio’s mentioned top contenders for 2016 – Chicago, New York, San Francisco, St. Louis, Pittsburgh, Washington and Arizona. I’m not sure that trade or trades are going to happen, but I’d prefer a little less ego and brilliance and a lot more common sense. The top teams in MLB loaded up over the winter and improved themselves. You don’t need a PhD to see how either. Top teams in both leagues acquire talented players. You know the players, you know their production, and you can see how they fit into a rotation or lineup. You don’t need to turn your head like a confused dog and squint to see why they made a great pick up. With the Dodgers nowadays, everything is needlessly complex. A trade often includes several teams, then some players are flipped, salaries absorbed, etc. In the end, you’re told how intelligent the move was, but you just can’t see it. I can see how other teams are getting better, I can’t see it with the Dodgers. I can’t see how a punch and Judy lineup not being fortified is improvement, adding injury risks or sending an ace to a rival is progress. Half of you can, and those of you are like the people who can look at those weird dot pictures in the mall and see a sailboat. Good for you; I’ll just go to the museum and look at real art.

Don’t forget to watch the special video bonus…

Look, a Sailboat!

Let Us Now Praise The Men From Guggenheim

August 27, 2012 4 comments

Let’s be clear:  I have been a skeptic.  In some ways I still am.

I tend to view Dodger owners past and present with a jaundiced eye.  The years have instilled that in me.  I’ve never worshiped with the cult of Peter O’Malley.  I recall  all too well the years he let the team flounder, wasting five consecutive rookie’s of the year without a single playoff win to show for them.  More to his discredit, I will never forgive him for allowing my beloved Dodgers to fall into the hands of Rupert Murdoch.  Nor can I forgive him for returning to baseball.  I view him now the way a grown-up child views the parent who abandoned them, playing with his new trophy family (The San Diego Padres).

I doubt that I need to explain here why I never trusted Fox, and then came to loathe Frank McCourt.  Those scabs do not need to be picked at right now.

But the point remains, there has been a cumulative sense of betrayal carried around by every Dodger fan for decades.  It has grown steadily over the years.  O’Malley never seemed to notice that he was planting those seeds, and Fox hardly seemed to care that they were taking full root.  Frank McCourt assumed that we were dumb enough to view him as a savior, even as he fertilized the soil with every word he uttered.  Thus when Guggenheim came along, I  was not sold.

And truth be told, there were reasons to be wary.  Their giant overbid that allowed McCourt to profit by more than a billion dollars – even as he was still part owner of the parking lots.  Job one of a vanquishing hero is to actually vanquish the enemy and hopefully make them pay.  Guggenheim failed on both of those fronts.  Worse, they lied to us in the process.

I began to suspect everything about them.  I wondered aloud if Magic Johnson was simply a trojan horse they used to escape the scrutiny of an angry Los Angeles populace.  I imagined scenarios in which they were a group actually assembled by Frank McCourt to allow him to walk away with the cable profits that Bud Selig had denied him.  I bristled as Stan Kasten spouted business jargon about “fan experience” and worried about things like stadium WiFi while a 17 win surplus was frittered away with seemingly no action to improve the team.  I howled as promises of action by Mark Walter were walked back by Kasten in a matter of hours.  I mocked as Magic Johnston fired off one tone-deaf tweet after another about partying on Rhianna’s yacht or jet-setting the globe while our team was bleeding out on the field.   They were all talk.  And worse, they seemingly had no idea how deep the distrust they’d walked into was.

Then came the Hanley Ramirez deal.  It had been years since The Dodgers made a move for a superstar in their prime.   That went a long way.  Then came the deadline deals that brought us Victorino and League.  I’d have rated the new owners a solid B+ at that point, missing an A because the moves came too late to protect our early-season lead (and after too much comically inept spin).

The Cliff Lee claim was where they won me over.  It didn’t matter that they did not come away with a deal for him.  They risked having that contract dumped on them.  No previous owner would have done that.  I suppose I pondered for a moment some plot involving Ned Colletti and his pal Ruben Amaro Jr.  wherein Amaro put Lee on waivers just to let us show willingness to claim him, with full assurance that he’d pull Lee back – but that was stupid.  Still it speaks to how little I was willing to trust.

Fast forward to last Friday.  When the first rumors about Adrian Gonzalez started surfacing, I dismissed them.  I considered what it would take to make something like that happen and wrote it off as science fiction. Then when the specifics of the deal began to emerge, I found it even more impossible to believe.  Trades like that just don’t happen.

But it did happen.

Lord knows all sorts of ink has been spilled analyzing the deal itself.  I am not in the mood to join in.  On the field the trade could go either way.  Anyone who says they know for sure one way or the other is full of it.  Trades happen precisely because nobody knows for sure who will do what.  So calculated risks are taken.

In retrospect the trade may just be seen as “classic Guggenheim” one day.  Just as they overshot the projected sales price for the Dodgers and included a stake in the real estate for McCourt to ensure that he’d accept their bid, here they chose the player they felt they had to get and offered enough in cash and prospects to assure that they would get their way.

People who worry about the money are missing the point.  From a fan’s perspective, worrying about the money is a form of Stockholm Syndrome.  It is something that we should never have to worry about.  I intend not to worry about it.  What I take away from all of this is that the folks from Guggenheim surveyed the free agent market and saw little there to look forward to – so they made their own market.  In the process, they brought back a sense of swagger to the Dodgers.  More important – they brought back trust.   Whether Adrian Gonzales hits, Carl Crawford fully recovers or Josh Beckett rebounds in the NL, trust is a dividend that will keep on paying.

We are on board with you now, gentleman.  Don’t take that for granted.